The returns stress test: where online retail falls short

It promises same-day delivery from a network of over 60 European warehouses. This marks the start of the challenge to Amazon. But whilst the industry debates market share and delivery times, a more sobering question arises: is JD.com prepared for the German returns market? Because this isn’t just the next logistical challenge; this is the real stress test for a successful customer experience and business success.

Every return is a data point that most people ignore

550 million return parcels – that was the University of Bamberg’s projection for 2025. A figure that not only illustrates the scale of the problem, but also its potential. Because behind every return lies a product that has failed to meet expectations – in whatever form. A product description that the item could not live up to. Packaging that failed. A process that overwhelmed the customer or failed to meet their needs. Returns mercilessly reveal where product, information and process fall short. Anyone who fails to systematically analyse these signals is missing out on the most direct form of customer feedback. Yet the real root cause lies deeper, as German consumers have, over the years, been conditioned to expect high standards when it comes to returns. These expectations have become a challenge for all market participants alike.

The blind spot in the metrics dashboard

Conversion rate, average basket value, delivery time – the KPIs of e-commerce are well known. What comes after that, however, remains surprisingly often in the dark. Hardly any retailer systematically tracks the Net Promoter Score or the repurchase rate following a return. Very few ask themselves whether a smooth returns process strengthens customer loyalty in the long term. In most cases, the primary focus is on preventing returns in the first place. This is a strategic mistake. A professionally managed returns process can not only maintain trust in a brand, it can build it up. If you don’t measure it, you’ll never know. And if you don’t know, you’re optimising for nothing.

From a cost factor to a strategic touchpoint

A paradigm shift is needed. Returns are not a necessary evil at the end of the customer journey, because the customer journey can be a cycle. As a standalone, customisable touchpoint, the customer return experience is the connecting link that brings the circle full circle. Retailers who have grasped this and consistently integrate returns into their customer experience strategy grow more profitably. Fast refunds, clear communication, a seamless process. These are not just nice extras, but tangible competitive advantages in a market where trust is the hardest currency. It’s the last impression that counts. Those who actively shape it secure repeat customers. Those who leave it to chance lose them, quietly and permanently.

Merely managing things is not enough

JD.com has the capital, the infrastructure and the operational clout to pose a serious challenge to the German market. However, the German returns market operates according to its own logic – one that cannot be resolved by scale alone. Over the years, German consumers have become accustomed to a returns process that is now deeply ingrained in their expectations: free returns, swift refunds and a seamless process – taken for granted, not regarded as a service. Amazon has been instrumental in setting this standard and remains the benchmark in returns management on the German market to this day. So anyone wishing to challenge Amazon in this area must not only be able to deliver – but also to take goods back.

The same applies to any retailer wishing to scale up in this country. Those who merely manage returns are squandering potential. Those who understand them win customers.

Reference: retourenforschung.de