Artjom Bruch, CEO of Trusted Returns, looks ahead to upcoming developments and explains why retailers now need to consistently shift from “more sales at any price” to responsible, data-driven returns management.

More courage to define customer profiles: When customer behavior has consequences

For a long time, the e-commerce motto was clear: growth first, orders first. Returns were seen as unavoidable collateral damage. In 2025/26, this perspective is changing — out of economic necessity.

More and more retailers are finally starting to use the data they already have in a systematic way: return reasons, the condition of goods upon return, return rates at the customer level, and purchase paths via marketplaces and online shops.

Providers like ASOS are showing the way forward: the British online giant charges customers with return rates above 70 percent a fee of £3.95 and even blocks entire accounts when return rates exceed 80 percent. The trend for 2026 is clear: away from anonymous returns and toward transparent customer profiles.

What matters here is the mindset: this is not about punishment, but about clear rules and fair incentives — also to protect honest, loyal customers who would otherwise have to bear the costs of frequent returners. Those who shop responsibly and rarely return items benefit from goodwill, service, and, where applicable, free returns. Those who systematically exploit policies or send back devalued goods experience tangible limits — up to and including account restrictions or bans. In doing so, retailers are finally addressing what has long been neglected: data was collected, but not used to turn a pure cost center into a manageable process.

AI Shopping Is Coming — But Physical Reality Remains

At the same time, a new wave is hitting retail: AI-powered shopping. Major tech companies are linking wallets, accounts, and assistants — AI agents that make recommendations, fill shopping carts, and even place orders autonomously are no longer science fiction.

But the excitement has a blind spot: even if algorithms can deliver better product recommendations, the physical world behind them does not change. Size, fit, feel, delivery issues, weather, delays in logistics — all of that remains. And every disappointment ultimately ends up as a return in the warehouse.

At the same time, the risk of new distortions is increasing: AI agents placing orders without properly considering the customer’s financial situation or context. Add to that misconfigurations or “hallucinating” assistants that lead to over-ordering.

In short, the industry is building new sales channels at high speed without thinking through the return channels at the same pace. For many retailers, 2026 will be the year this imbalance becomes visible: anyone integrating AI into sales without modernizing returns management will amplify existing problems — just faster, and at higher cost.

Marketplaces Must Take Responsibility: Customer-Friendly at Retailers’ Expense

In recent years, marketplaces have become the dominant sales infrastructure. For many retailers, they are indispensable — despite limited room to maneuver:

• They bear the full product risk
• They must comply with extremely customer-friendly return policies
• They are put under pressure through metrics such as Time to Refund: those who issue refunds too slowly lose ranking and visibility — and therefore revenue

In practice, this often means that refunds are issued before the return has been inspected. A systematic decision on whether returned goods actually comply with policy rarely takes place — simply because processes are missing or too manual.

At the same time, the role of the marketplace is changing: partners are becoming gatekeepers. Retailers are turning into interchangeable suppliers, while the marketplace controls the customer interface, the data, and the terms.

In 2026, marketplaces will have to face the question of what responsibility they bear for the cost side of the system. Those who continuously make generous return promises while shifting the risk entirely onto retailers are cementing a model that is neither economically nor ecologically sustainable in the long term.

From paper inserts to a strategic lever: Finally using data

In 2026, many retailers fail at a simple point: processes end at checkout. Returns run in parallel — manually, paper-based, and in separate systems. Many shipments still include return forms, even though many are never used. In warehouses, returns are recorded without linking the data to e-commerce, marketing, or CRM systems. Customer service, logistics, and e-commerce each see only fragments.

As a result, data is generated, but it is rarely used to identify abuse, optimize assortments and product presentation, or enable automated decisions in the returns process.

2026 is the year retailers must move from merely describing problems to active, automated control — otherwise returns will remain an expensive blind flight with a clearly negative impact on business success.

Conclusion: In 2026, the decision will be made in the return channel

In 2026, online retail is under massive margin and competitive pressure, while AI shopping and marketplaces are rewriting the rules — yet the biggest blind spot remains returns management. Anyone who continues to focus only on growth and orders without managing returns in a data-driven way will worsen their economic problems.

What matters now is the shift from anonymous returns to transparent customer profiles with fair incentives — rewarding responsible behavior and clearly limiting abuse. At the same time, retailers must absorb the additional orders generated by AI and marketplaces with modern, integrated return processes instead of issuing refunds uncontrollably.

Only if return data is consistently linked with shop, marketing, and CRM systems and used for automation will a costly cost center become a strategic management lever — and e-commerce remain economically and ecologically sustainable in the long term.